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Week ahead: UK wages, Fed minutes, bank results
Wednesday will be the big day next week, with UK labour market data, initial Eurozone purchasing managers' surveys and Federal Reserve minutes, with bank results the key theme on the London corporate calendar.
"In a holiday-shortened week, the FOMC minutes for the January meeting should garner a great deal of attention," said RBC Capital Markets. "Given the market's obsession with inflation, we think the odds that the minutes are interpreted as reinforcing this narrative of a firming inflationary backdrop are high. The tweaks to the press statement were significant enough that the minutes are likely to read hawkish overall."
RBC said that, given the recent change towards more more hawkish language, it seems entirely reasonable that the Fed is leading up to a more forceful tone on rate hikes as the year progresses. "We think there is a high probability that the Fed moves the dots to 4 hikes in 2018 (from 3) near-term and that the minutes could be another step in reinforcing this."
Similarly, the UK labour market data earlier that day will be viewed for signs of wages rising, as suggested by the Bank of England's recent regional agents' survey on pay, which showed settlements predicted to average an increased 3.1% rate for 2018. If this survey evidence materialises, it could be enough to bring the more dovish members of the MPC onside to support further gradual increases in rates.
The consensus forecast is for unemployment to remain at 4.3% with another solid gain in the level of employment, while average earnings excluding-bonuses are expected to hold at 2.4% or 2.5% if including bonuses.
Full year numbers are scheduled from HSBC on Tuesday, Lloyds Banking on Wednesday, Barclays on Thursday and RBS on Friday.
HSBC's focus on Asia is expected to yield a big jump in profits when the company releases its latest full-year numbers., while Lloyds CEO Antonio Horta-Osorio is expected to set out plans for the next three years alongside full year results.
RBS could return to profit for the first time this decade, though both it and Lloyds are likely to have taken hits from the recent collapse of Carillion.
For Barclays' investment bank arm will have faced the same soft market conditions confirmed by its US peer group, which analysts said are likely to be compounded in Barclays' case by the appreciation of sterling versus the dollar.
Other company's due to report include Reckitt Benckiser on Monday; with Tuesday seeing BHP Billiton, InterContinental Hotels; then on Wednesday we have Barratt Developments, Glencore, Metro Bank; on Thursday it's Anglo American, BAE Systems, British American Tobacco, Centrica, Playtech, RSA Insurance, Serco; and ending the week with IAG, Pearson, Standard Life Aberdeen and William Hill.
US markets will remain closed at the beginning of the week, on Monday, in observance of George Washington's birthday.
Monday 19 February
INTERIMS
City of London Investment Group, MJ Gleeson , Petra Diamonds Ltd.(DI)
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATES
QN Asset Finance Income Fund Limited, SQN Asset Finance Income Fund Limited 'C Shares'
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Current Account (EU) (09:00)
GMSIngenta
FINALS
Fidessa Group, McColl's Retail Group , McColl's Retail Group , Reckitt Benckiser Group, Spectris
AGMS
Elegant Hotels Group
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Paragon Banking Group
Tuesday 20 February
INTERIMS
Dunelm Group, Green Reit, Springfield Properties , Tristel
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Ramsdens Holdings
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Producer Price Index (GER) (07:00)
Q4Novolipetsk Steel GDS (Reg S)
GMS
JPMorgan Income & Capital Inv Trust
FINALS
HSBC Holdings, InterContinental Hotels Group, Lighthouse Group, Lighthouse Group, Novolipetsk Steel GDS (Reg S), Synectics
ANNUAL REPORT
HSBC Holdings
EGMS
PJSC Centre For Cargo Container Traffic Transcontainer GDR (Reg S), Plaza Centers NV
AGMS
Derriston Capital
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
CBI Industrial Trends Surveys (11:00)
Wednesday 21 February
INTERIMS
Barratt Developments, Hotel Chocolat Group , SkinBioTherapeutics
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Existing Home Sales (US) (15:00)
MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (00:00)
PMI Manufacturing (US) (14:45)
GMS
Target Healthcare Reit Ltd
FINALS
Capital & Counties Properties , Glencore , Lloyds Banking Group, Metro Bank, Mithras Inv Trust, OMV Petrom S.A. GDR (REG S), Unite Group
AGMS
Bankers Inv Trust, Baronsmead Venture Trust, Gooch & Housego, Schroder European Real Estate Investment Trust, Titon Holdings
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
FirstGroup
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Claimant Count Rate (09:30)
Public Sector Net Borrowing (09:30)
Thursday 22 February
INTERIMS
Go-Ahead Group, Hays, Wilmington
INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Aberdeen Private Equity Fund Ltd. Sterling Part Shares, Diageo, Downing Four VCT DP2011 Low Carb, Downing Four VCT DP67 , Hargreaves Services, Heath (Samuel) & Sons, Oxford Instruments, Stewart & Wight
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Impact Healthcare Reit
QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Brunner Inv Trust, Carnival, GlaxoSmithKline, NextEnergy Solar Fund Limited Red, RM Secured Direct Lending
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)
Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)
Gross Domestic Product (GER) (07:00)
IFO Business Climate (GER) (09:00)
IFO Expectations (GER) (09:00)
Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)
Q4
Hellenic Telecom Industries SA ADS, TBC Bank Group
FINALS
Anglo American, Arbuthnot Banking Group, BAE Systems, Barclays, Bouygues SA, British American Tobacco, Centrica, Hellenic Telecom Industries SA ADS, Intu Properties, Kaz Minerals , Macfarlane Group, Moneysupermarket.com Group, Morgan Sindall Group, Playtech, Rathbone Brothers, RSA Insurance Group, Serco Group, TBC Bank Group, Vitec Group
SPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Hargreave Hale AIM VCT 2, Independent Inv Trust, Plus500 Ltd (DI)
AGMS
APC Technology Group, Zytronic
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Hansard Global, Safestore Holdings
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
CBI Distributive Trades Surveys (11:00) GDP (Preliminary) (09:30) Index of Services (09:30)
FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Blackrock Throgmorton Trust, Imperial Brands , Independent Inv Trust, Jersey Electricity 'A' Shares, Lancashire Holdings Limited, Plus500 Ltd (DI), Shoe Zone, Zytronic
Q1
Safestore Holdings
Friday 23 February
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Downing One VCT , Livermore Investments Group Ltd., NCC Group
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Blue Capital Alternative Income Fund Ltd (DI), Primary Health Properties, SQN Secured Income Fund
QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
General Electric Co
Q4
Royal Bank of Scotland Group
FINALS
Afarak Group (DI), International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (CDI), Rightmove, Royal Bank of Scotland Group, Standard Life Aberdeen, William Hill
SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Best of the Best
AGMS
Caledonian Trust
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
RWS Holdings, Urban&Civic